From June 19th to 25th, the popularity of industrial base machines increased by 3.51%, becoming one of the hottest topics in the secondary market after satellite Internet and robots.
Driven by major national science and technology projects such as the "04 Project", domestic high-end machine tools, numerical control systems, and core components have begun to replace imports in high-end manufacturing industries such as military industry and aerospace, achieving breakthroughs from scratch. More companies "dare to use" domestic machine tools, and accelerate the transformation of domestic high-end machine tools from "usable" to "easy to use".
According to data from the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise Development Promotion Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2022, compared with Europe, the United States, Japan, etc., the technical level of China's five-axis machining center is rapidly shortening.
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Industrial mother machine ranks among the top stream
In 2021, under the name of the State Council State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission Party Committee meeting to strengthen key core technology research, the industrial base machine will successfully rank among the top A-shares and become one of the hottest concepts in the past two years.
Industrial machine tools, in a broad sense, refer to machines that manufacture machines and machinery, and in a narrow sense, they refer to metal processing machine tools. As a strategic industry, industrial master machines are at the front end of the entire manufacturing industry chain and carry the foundation of the entire manufacturing industry. As one of the most important tools for industrial production, the downstream application terminals of industrial base machines are mainly mechanical equipment, new energy, aerospace and other industries.
At present, my country's industrial base machine industry has formed a complete industrial system, and it is in the second echelon of the world as a whole. In the field of core components such as numerical control systems, high-precision sensors, and spindles, my country's competitiveness is still weak.
In the CNC machine tool market, there is a "difficult situation" of "homogeneous competition of low-end domestic brands, mid-range complete machines and parts rely on imports, and high-end markets are subject to overseas embargoes and technology control gaps". According to the data of China Machine Tool Industry Association, at present, my country's high-end functional components for complete machines rely heavily on imports. The self-sufficiency rate of domestic high-end systems is less than 10%, and about 90% relies on imports. Among them, Japan imports the most, accounting for about 1/3, and domestic high-end CNC systems add up to less than 30%.
Recently, a number of policies and conferences have focused on the high-quality development of the industrial base machine industry, bringing "spring breeze" to the development of the industry.
At the "Third Industrial Base Machine High-quality Development Forum" that just ended last month, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it will adhere to "demand orientation, scene traction, pilot test verification, and string of beads into a chain", focus on improving independent innovation capabilities, promote industrial quality upgrading, strengthen market application promotion, cultivate a complete industrial ecology, and promote high-quality development of the industrial base machine industry.
The recently enlarged meeting of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized that it is necessary to guide and promote central enterprises to increase their deployment in strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and industrial motherboards, and to promote digital, intelligent, and green transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.
The "Opinions on Building a Powerful Province of High-quality Manufacturing" issued by Guangdong Province proposes to cultivate and expand industrial clusters of 100 billion or trillion yuan. Focus on equipment manufacturing and terminal product fields, and vigorously develop high-end industrial machine tools and other industries.
Some market participants analyzed that under the background of "independent controllability + update cycle", the machine tool industry will usher in an upward cycle. From the perspective of the big cycle, the replacement cycle of the industrial base machine industry is about 7-10 years. The last round of high points was 2011-2013. It is expected that the turning point of industrial base machines will approach.
The accelerated transformation of China's manufacturing industry and the rapid rise of emerging industries such as precision molds, aerospace, rail transit, and biomedicine are expected to become new growth points for the CNC machine tool industry. Some organizations predict that by 2026, China's CNC machine tool market will exceed 500 billion yuan; from 2024 to 2028, the domestic industrial machine tool market will exceed one trillion yuan.
Private enterprises entering the bureau, fund blessing
With the help of policies, the secondary market "dances when it hears the news".
Statistics from Databao show that since May, 25 industrial machine concept stocks in Wind have seen a good rise, with an average increase of 4.97%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index over the same period. Bacheng concept stocks achieved varying degrees of gains. Among them, Changying Precision (300115.SZ) and Haozhi Electromechanical (300503.SZ) have the largest cumulative gains, both exceeding 20%; Huazhong CNC (300161.SZ), Shenyang Machine Tool (000410.SZ), and Qinchuan Machine Tool (000837.SZ) have risen by more than 10%.
On June 20, Huazhong CNC responded to investors’ questions and stated that, as a leading company in domestic mid-to-high-end CNC systems, the company currently has complete independent intellectual property rights for multi-axis linkage high-end CNC system products, and has realized the localization and self-manufacturing of corresponding core components such as control devices, servo drives, and servo motors, breaking foreign technology blockades.
In the past year, Shenyang Machine Tool has set up 35 scientific research teams to overcome more than 10 core key technologies such as the design and manufacture of high-end CNC machine tools, and the research and development investment accounted for 11.9% of the total sales revenue. In terms of processing accuracy, Shenyang Machine Tool's Longmen series products have successfully crossed the industry threshold of 0.01mm.
In May, Qinchuan Machine Tool announced that it plans to raise no more than 1.23 billion yuan in additional funds, which will be used for the high-end industrial machine tool innovation base project (Phase I), the R&D and industrialization construction project of rolling functional components in the new energy vehicle field, the construction project of new energy passenger car parts and the construction of complex tool industry chain strengthening chain supplementary chain empowerment and upgrading technology transformation projects. It is reported that after the completion of the above-mentioned projects, Qinchuan Machine Tool expects the production capacity of high-end five-axis machining centers to reach 235 units, the total output of new energy auto parts is 13.44 million pieces per year, and the production capacity of various high-end complex tools is 194,700 pieces per year.
In the first quarter of 2023, 6 stocks including Haitian Precision (601882.SH), AVIC High-Tech (600862), and Hongyuan Green Energy (603185.SH) have a net profit of more than 100 million yuan, and most of them achieved year-on-year growth. Among them, Haitian Precision's net profit increased by 22.84% year-on-year, ranking among the top.
In the past few years, affected by the overseas epidemic, the import of high-end CNC machine tools has been restricted. Haitian Precision and other domestic machine tool leaders' five-axis linkage machine tools and other products have entered the aerospace parts industry supply chain in batches, demonstrating the competitiveness of my country's high-end CNC machine tools and accelerating import substitution in the field of high-end CNC machine tools.
The controlling shareholder of AVIC Hi-Tech is the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, which is one of the large-scale backbone enterprises in my country's machine tool industry and one of the manufacturers with the largest sales and exports of radial arm milling machines in China. The first quarterly report for 2023 shows that the company achieved revenue of 1.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.36%; net profit attributable to the parent was 334 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.91%.
The willingness of private enterprises to try domestic machine tools has increased significantly, bringing new growth opportunities for domestic high-end machine tools.
The research report of Guohai Securities shows that in the process of upgrading the demand structure of the local industrial base machine market, private enterprises have quietly risen. Some private machine tool companies have seized the opportunity of industry transformation, positioned mid-to-high-end CNC machine tool products, and carried out product development around the needs of downstream industries such as automobiles, consumer electronics, and high-end equipment.
"The three important functional components of the industrial master machine, the turntable, the turret, and the tool magazine, all relied on imports a few years ago. After the technical breakthroughs of the R&D personnel, we broke the import monopoly of related technologies." Zhao Xiangyu, general manager of Jiangsu Gutian Automation Co., Ltd., said.
Huachen Equipment (300809.SZ), a leader of private enterprises in Kunshan and a domestic leader in the manufacture of high-end roll grinders, also revealed recently that through long-term technology accumulation, the company has repeatedly broken foreign technology monopoly in high-precision CNC roll grinders and other fields, and has overcome a number of "stuck neck" high-precision technologies.
"To realize the domestic substitution of high-end machine tools, it is inseparable from the maturity of the industrial chain. Looking forward to the support of follow-up policies and funds (industrial machine tool equity investment funds, etc.), it is expected that in addition to high-end machine tools, some difficult-to-breakthrough links in the industrial chain will continue to increase. Due to the integration of software and hardware, the numerical control system has the highest technical barriers and the highest value. Achieving a comprehensive breakthrough requires greater external support for joint research, which is expected to become the focus of follow-up support policies and funds.”
The latest information shows that the industrial master machine equity investment fund has completed the filing of the Fund Industry Association in February this year, and is currently officially launching investment, with a first-phase scale of 15.8 billion yuan. In the future, the equity investment fund will focus on the five major directions of high-end machine tools, high-end CNC systems and key components, advanced testing equipment and special materials, professional software and supporting services, solutions and downstream customers.
