When the aftermath of the India-Pakistan "May 7 air battle" made people continue to pay attention to the subsequent export prospects of the J-10 series aircraft, the official account of the Pakistani government suddenly announced on Friday that "in the great diplomatic achievements under the leadership of Prime Minister Sharif", Pakistan has won the "J-35 fighter + KJ-500 early warning aircraft + HQ-19 anti-missile system" in one fell swoop.
This made the "Indonesia evaluates the possibility of purchasing the J-10" and "the Chinese national football team lost to Indonesia and missed the World Cup again" which were just hot searches on Thursday - this pair is obviously unrelated, but the news that netizens are happy to associate with each other, suddenly lost its popularity. In addition to the content of the military review originally written by the author, how the Russian Aerospace Forces restored the Tu-95 fleet after the "Black Children's Day" can only be discussed in the second half of the military review.
Hype? Take advantage of the "just bought aircraft is too strong" to let him hype!
It can be said that since the No. 31001 "Falcon" verification aircraft was unveiled at the Zhuhai Air Show in 2014, there have been endless speculations about who will be the first customer of this model, which is promoted with foreign trade as the focus; and even if Pakistan is not the first, it rarely falls out of the top three.
However, even though Pakistan has long been rumored to purchase FC-31/J-35AE, when the official X (original Twitter) account of the Pakistani government released a series of information on the successful acquisition of the "three major items" headed by the J-35 on the afternoon of June 6, everyone's first reaction was still "Check it out, this account is not a high-imitation account again?"
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In fact, the core idea of these tweets is "Our prime minister is strong in diplomacy and has a great ability to make money"
Although it has been verified that the official certification attribute of this account is indeed "genuine", the daily routine of this government account is to "paint" the Sharif family to enhance Pakistan's internal cohesion, and its strength sometimes even makes the front page of the Korean Central News Agency feel ashamed. Because of this, the authority of this account has been questioned for publishing some "strong Pakistan news".
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"40 J-35A + HQ-19" first appeared on the Internet in the "Asian Security and Defense" in Kuala Lumpur on June 2, "citing sources". It is difficult to say who influenced whom between it and the Pakistani government account X
Specific to the "three big things", the author first said the conclusion: although it is not to the extent of being described as "thinking of the name of the child as soon as the blind date", it is somewhat like "adding your own name to the house title when meeting the other party's parents for the first time" - but in this context, doing so is not necessarily a bad thing.
There is no doubt that for Pakistan, with the power of the air battle victory, strike while the iron is hot to get the J-35AE and achieve "win to the end". Even if there is a Su-57MKI, we will kill you without leaving a single piece of armor. It can be said that it is the second coolest plot after dreaming of the "J-20AE". As a direct descendant of the FC-31 project, the J-35AE has indeed entered the test flight stage. It seems that Pakistan's dream will be realized in a short time, but the overall situation that the J-35AE must obey is obviously even more unacceptable.
This year is a critical year for the two self-use models of the J-35: the naval model has successfully completed a major milestone and will soon participate in major celebrations with the J-15D/T as a symbol of the new quality combat power of the People's Navy's carrier-based aviation force; the air force model is also about to be equipped with the first combat duty unit.
Therefore, both models are facing the climbing moment from trial production to finalized mass production. Through the experience of using the J-20, users have put forward higher requirements for the quality control and processing and manufacturing quality of the finished products of stealth aircraft, which makes the top priority of the factory's current task, naturally - and can only be - to ensure the successful completion of the design finalization work and the smooth delivery of mass production.
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Google Earth satellite image of the Fujian ship after its 7th sea trial
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At the same time, it seems that no one cares about the Type 055 destroyer No. 9, which is not far from the Fujian ship and is about to be delivered, and the No. 11 ship, which was launched a few months ago. Anyway, as of today, the 11th F-15EX has not completed the final assembly and rolled off the production line
As my country's first foreign trade stealth aircraft, the J-35AE, which represents the image of China's cutting-edge military aircraft in the new era and is different from the self-use type, has a priority after the self-use type, so further polishing to better meet the needs of foreign trade customers is also a matter of course. This time window just caught up with the first victory of the J-10CE, which became the peak period of the spread of the image of Chinese military aircraft; then when the specific negotiations are still in progress and it is still far from being "available immediately", it is understandable to regard the marketing (chao) (zuo) behavior of the Pakistani government account as a kind of "commercial warm-up".
The author has always believed that, based on strength, my country's hype about the image value of military aircraft is not too much, but too little. For example, there are rumors on the Internet that the J-35 may fly to Pakistan to participate in the National Day military parade. Many people think that it is too hasty to achieve success before the official signing. In the author's opinion, if the J-35AE prototype can really appear over Islamabad and fly a pass on the Republic Day in March next year, it will prove that China's military aircraft marketing has finally echoed the "customer win need".
In short, although Pakistan does want to strike while the iron is hot and win more, even if the World Bank loan is "put on the shopping card" in the first place, even if the legendary "Oil Tyrant Brothers" help with all their heart, "40 J-35s" cannot be teleported to the reinforced hangar at once and become the background of another version of "The plane I just bought is too powerful"; but with the endorsement of the country that is most qualified to evaluate the actual combat power of Chinese military aircraft today, it will promote other potential customers to contact the J-35AE, so "The plane I just bought is too powerful" is one step closer to the release of multi-language versions, and the confidence to face the "big boss" F-35 in the international military aircraft market is one point stronger.
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The candidates for sales ambassadors are all ready
Compared with the J-35, the KJ-500 ranks first in the "three major items" "officially announced" by Pakistan this time. Although many people are worried that if the KJ-500, the main early warning aircraft of our army, is exported to Pakistan, will it face the risk of leaks? But since the KJ-500 impressed the Pakistani Air Force in the "Eagle" joint training in recent years, especially after the Pakistani Air Force announced the retirement of the ZDK-03 early warning aircraft, the Pakistani Air Force has been calculating the KJ-500 with a lot of calculations, which is quite like "if you don't sell it to me, then why are you always waving it in front of me?" logic.
On the other side of the Himalayas, with the "May 7 Air Combat" proving the excellent combat effectiveness of domestic equipment, especially self-use equipment, it swept away the previous voices of distrust of domestic equipment, and the "united front value" of military trade with Pakistan also increased significantly.
And before we knew it, it has been a full ten years since the KJ-500 made its first public appearance - the 2015 military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression. Now the KJ-500A has been mass-produced and equipped in the army, and the new generation of large and medium-sized early warning aircraft has been fully put into test flight. The KJ-500 "adjusting the configuration according to user requirements" is also feasible.
And objectively speaking, a few days after the "May 7 air battle", the Indian army's retaliatory strikes against Pakistani military targets using a combination of multiple missiles also proved that the Pakistani Air Force's current early warning detection capability with "Eye" as the core still has obvious shortcomings. Therefore, the KJ-500, which has better detection capabilities for such targets and is more conducive to networking with fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles and ground radar systems, is more feasible and necessary in the short term than obtaining the J-35AE in terms of urgency and delivery difficulty.
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If Pakistan wanted to use the "bitter trick" of retiring ZDK-03 to promote the KJ-500 to obtain export license, it would be somewhat unpleasant; now that the Pakistani Air Force, which has created a "complete victory in the first battle" dream start for the J-10 series and suffered a small loss in subsequent air defense and anti-missile, is seeking to purchase the KJ-500 again, its demonstration effect is very clear
With the "reward for merit" after the air battle, the term of office of Pakistani Air Force Chief of Staff Admiral Baber will be extended to April 2026. This "head" of the Pakistani Air Force, who has successfully led the introduction of advanced equipment such as the J-10CE and the Hongqi 9BE since taking office in 2021, is very likely to continue to promote the negotiation of subsequent military trade projects in the next year. A long-term Air Force Chief of Staff represents the most valuable stability for major military trade projects that often take several years from negotiation to execution, especially for radar intelligence networks and ground-to-air missile weapon systems that are slow to take effect.
As a typical Western-style air force, the priority of Pakistani Air Force radar and ground-to-air missile forces is obviously not as high as that of aviation. If we look at the whole country, the problem of Pakistan's air situation network will only be greater. It is far from enough to rely on a few sets of red nine weapons to protect key targets; and this defect is likely to stimulate India to use missiles for military adventures in the next provocation to better achieve its "win-learning" purpose. But what no one can predict is that if this military adventure of India also fails after Pakistan is more fully prepared, will "Modi Laoxian" use that "big move"?
Therefore, although the Hongqi-19 sounds the most absurd among the "three-piece set" officially announced by the Pakistani government account, it is indeed not without a basis for argument: after the "Bharat Winning School" shocked the world, once Pakistan no longer chooses to show mercy next time, with the scale of casualties that India cannot conceal, it will directly burst this fragile bubble. In addition to nuclear weapons - the most reliable nuclear strike means for India at present is the Agni-2 medium-range ballistic missile of the 355th Missile Brigade stationed at the Secunderabad base in south-central India - in a highly populist India, what else can maintain its ultimate stability?
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Although the performance of Agni-2 is visibly average, the principle of anti-missile interception, especially when intercepting nuclear missiles, has always been "killing a chicken with a butcher knife".
Although technically speaking, the Hongqi-9BE responsible for terminal anti-missile may not be able to intercept the reentry warhead of Agni-2, but from a strategic point of view, only the Hongqi-19 with mid-course anti-missile capability can actually offset India's nuclear deterrence and completely "win nothing". For India, if it is known that Pakistan has made Hongqi-19 realize combat readiness duty within its territory in some way, it may help India calm down and avoid falling into a greater disaster - when your nuclear bombs are intercepted by the other side, but you cannot intercept the other side's nuclear bombs, what the outcome means is self-evident.
Therefore, although the official announcement of the "three major items" this time does have the purpose of Pakistan's propaganda leaders' "civil and military strategies", and even has the effect of deliberately "disgusting" India and winning the public opinion war on the Internet; but the "three major items" do have different degrees of rationality for Pakistan's national defense construction and even national strategy.
Even if they are limited by various factors, they have a short or long distance to become a reality, or even out of reach unless "there is an emergency"; the "three major items" at least show that the types of equipment that can be discussed between China and Pakistan in military trade contacts have reached an almost "unlimited" level, and at the same time, it is enough to let more people understand what the corresponding determination behind the legendary "stabilizing the west and seeking the east" strategy may be.
Resurrection? You know who can survive if you don't have the ability?
When the "Black Children's Day" of the Russian long-range aviation came to the "first seven days", when the "incense ashes" on the graves of Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 had not been cleaned up, although Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov still claimed that "as the representative of the Ministry of Defense said, these aircraft were not destroyed, but damaged", but the Russian Aerospace Forces' large aircraft units, especially the strategic bomber units, obviously cannot be as free and easy as the iron-toothed diplomats, and these "only damaged" Soviet heritage must be restored to at least the figures on the books.
Relatively speaking, the loss of the Tu-22M3 fleet is relatively small, and since the Russian military has a large number of Tu-22M3s in stock, it is not difficult to recover. For the Aerospace Force, the loss that really matters and is difficult to recover in a short period of time is the Tu-95MS strategic bomber, which has a total production of only 58 and is less than 1/3 of the H-6K series (maybe less than 1/4 in a few years).
Excluding the three aircraft that were completely lost due to accidents from 2013 to 2015, Russia had 55 Tu-95MS on its books before the attack. These aircraft were grounded on a large scale in the late 1990s. After Putin came to power, a batch of grounded Tu-95MS were unsealed and repaired every few years, basically achieving a full recovery of the fleet.
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The Tu-95MS has been gradually upgraded to the MSM standard in recent years, and can use more types of missiles, but the upgrade process has not progressed as expected due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict
Since these aircraft are all "post-80s" or even "post-90s", and there are a large number of aviation materials supplemented from the old Tu-95 models, the overall serviceability of the Tu-95MS fleet is relatively high among the Russian large aircraft, but this also means that after the large-scale drone attack this time, there are no "sealed Tu-95MS" available for unsealing and use. Only at the Long-Range Aviation Training Center at the Dzhagilevo Air Force Base in Ryazan Oblast, there are some early Tu-95MS models that are rarely on combat readiness duty. Although the Ukrainians have not forgotten that there are Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 here, the attack on this base did not cause serious damage.
In addition, there are still some Tu-95K airframes sealed according to the US-Russia Strategic Arms Control Treaty at the Dzhagilevo Air Force Base, but these aircraft were all manufactured in the 1960s and are no longer suitable for re-entry. The Samara plant (formerly Kuibyshev Plant 18), which originally mass-produced the Tu-95MS, and the Taganrog Plant 86, which was responsible for upgrading it to the Tu-95MSM, had no usable Tu-95 fuselages available after the last four long-grounded Tu-95MS were put back into the sky in 2018.
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The earlier Tu-95 series that were dismantled according to the treaty and abandoned in the open air for a long time are naturally even less valuable
So, can the Aerospace Force only accept the loss of at least 1/7 of the "bear"? In the short term, it is true. However, since Russia is slowly restoring the production capacity of the Tu-160, even at the current rate of three in two years, as long as it does not suffer such a "black Children's Day", by around 2030, the Aerospace Force's strategic bomber fleet will be able to return to the size before June 1, 2025. But if the Aerospace Force still wants to retain more Tu-95MS with lower daily dispatch costs, it will have to ask the Navy for help.
As the last model of Tu-95 in the Soviet era, the first batch of 6 Tu-95MS were actually modified from the fuselage of Tu-142MK anti-submarine patrol aircraft at Factory 86 in Taganrog. Although the scale has shrunk sharply after the Cold War, the Russian Navy's Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet still retain an independent aviation regiment with the Tu-142 series as the main model. Each regiment has 12 Tu-142MK/MZ anti-submarine patrol aircraft and 5 Tu-142MR anti-submarine strategic communication aircraft. The latter has a special status and is related to Russia's strategic security, so it is unlikely to be used for other purposes.
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Comparing the Tu-95MS and Tu-142MZ, it can be seen that the main difference between the two appearances is the nose and the radome under the fuselage. In addition, it can be seen that the Tu-142
Magnetic anomaly detector at the top of the vertical tail of MZ
The Tu-142MK of the Northern Fleet is a little older, produced in 1984-1985, while the Tu-142MZ of the Pacific Fleet was produced in 1989-1992 and delivered at the same time as the Tu-95MS. Originally, the Russian Navy planned to upgrade the Tu-142MZ to the Tu-142MZM, but due to limited funds, this upgrade project was eventually scrapped. The Russian Navy chose to upgrade the older Il-38, which has lower daily maintenance and use costs, to the Il-38N standard. In 2023, Russia announced that it would develop a new anti-submarine aircraft based on the Il-114 passenger aircraft as a successor to the Il-38. However, similar to many large aircraft projects in Russia in recent years, this project has not made clear progress recently.
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Il-114MP anti-submarine patrol aircraft plan, the new anti-submarine aircraft developed by Russia is likely to be its four-engine enlarged version. The lower monoplane layout still has its inherent advantages as an anti-submarine patrol aircraft.
No matter when the successor arrives, the Tu-142MK/MZ is likely to retire before the Il-38N, which means that the Russian Navy will not have the ability to "hunt sharks" in the deep ocean; but ocean anti-submarine warfare is a highly complex system operation. The Tu-142, which lacks the cooperation of advanced ocean-going anti-submarine ships and cannot upgrade its own equipment, only has a huge patrol radius. For the Russian Navy, which needs money everywhere, the pure "Cold War relic" Tu-142MK/MZ is indeed a rather tasteless asset.
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"Taganrog" Tu-142MR. As the Russian version of the E-6B, responsible for conveying the Supreme Command's instructions to the ballistic missile nuclear submarine, the "Bear-J (NATO code name)" is a great power that must be maintained at all costs.
Therefore, if the Russian Navy can allocate a part of the Tu-142 to the Aerospace Force, especially the 12 Tu-142MZ produced at the same time as the Tu-95MS in the Pacific Fleet, while saving a sum of daily expenses, it will not cause a significant decline in the Russian Navy's anti-submarine combat capabilities, and it can also become an important source of "reincarnation" of the strategic assets of the Aerospace Force, the Tu-95MS.
In addition, since the number of Tu-95s completely lost is less than double digits, only about 1/3 of the 24 Tu-142 anti-submarine models need to be withdrawn for modification, which will not affect the establishment and retention of two independent aviation regiments - if the cost is to disband a regiment-level organization, it is estimated that the Russian Navy is unlikely to agree.
There are no major technical obstacles to converting the Tu-142 into the Tu-95MSM. At a time when the US-Russia Treaty on Measures for Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) is in name only, although it would be considered "breaking the rules" during the Cold War, if Russia now starts the modification project of the Tu-142, it is unlikely to have more negative impact on the international situation, which is already negative enough.
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Trump's concern about the nuclear scale is largely based on his personality rather than rational expression. Russia's more or less Tu-95s is obviously not a big news that allows Trump to show that he is omnipotent
In addition to the two options of "ignore the Tu-95 and produce the Tu-160" and "buy back the Tu-142 for modification and produce the Tu-160", it is estimated that no one remembers that Russia has a next-generation strategic bomber PAK-DA plan.
Just as the land battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict made the T-14 "Armata", a model that was originally thought to represent the future development path of tanks, become a kind of "tears of the times", the logic of using strategic bombers in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is no different from the local wars after the Cold War, which has led to the significance of investing funds to develop PAK-DA, which is neither stealthy nor supersonic, and is also widely questioned.
Before the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict, Russian military journalists once teased, "Maybe Tu-160M2 is PAK-DA", so if Russia really transfers part of the Tu-142 to the Air Force for modification, then at a time when the future of the A-100 early warning aircraft project is extremely bleak, Taganrog, which has no serious production tasks, is idle enough to toss some tricks on the Tu-142 fuselage. Is this "Tu-142MZM2" also a kind of "PAK-DA"?
